The Sierra Nevada National and Natural Park (PNSN) is a unique example of a high mountain climate influenced by Mediterranean characteristics. Its valuable biodiversity is linked to snow, which generates multiple ecosystem services, vulnerable to changes in the temperature and precipitation regime. This proposal proposes the development of eco-hydrological indicators adapted to the needs of the PNSN, based on the hydrological impact of climate change evaluated in previous projects, which is extended with the interaction of vegetation (community distribution and aerobiology), to enhance its use in the management of terrestrial biodiversity associated with the presence of snow and possible adaptation actions in a context of global change. These indicators represent, for different climate change scenarios, the spatio-temporal distribution of the impact of the regime of hydrological variables on the distribution of vegetation cover classified by ecoclimate.

The results will make it possible to assess, on the basis of the foreseeable changes in hydrology and in the selected vegetation covers, other aspects for the management of the Park (impact of potentially better accessibility associated with less snow, or how the demand for land use will increase for other activities with a potential impact on the structure (biodiversity) and functionality (ecosystem services)). Its integration into a networked platform accessible to Park managers, to other scientists working on biodiversity not only associated with vegetation, but also with other taxonomic and functional groups in the rest of the ecosystem, and to the public, impacts on other areas of work and use of the environment. Finally, it should be noted that the monitoring of global change in this unique environment is a laboratory scale of such change in other areas of Europe further north, whose early indicators can be assessed on the basis of the changes already detected in SN.

The project aims to develop eco-hydrological indicators adapted to the management needs of the PNNSN, based on the impact of climate change, expanded with the interaction of vegetation, to promote their use in the management of terrestrial biodiversity associated with the presence of snow and possible adaptation actions in a context of global change.

To this end, the following specific objectives are carried out:

Identification of information needs in the PNNSN.

Obtaining eco-hydrological indicators for biodiversity management in the PNyNSN associated with the distribution of vegetation.

Evaluation of new high-resolution remote sensors in SN for future upgrading

Implementation of pilot cases in the network platform for snow monitoring in PNyNSN

The study defines different Eco-hydrological Indicators (EHI) related to precipitation and temperature. For its analysis, 6 case studies are defined according to the vegetation cover and the study area. Three vegetation covers are selected: Shrubland, as the most extensive use (32.63%) within the Sierra Nevada National and Natural Park; Conifers, as the most extensive tree species in the area and considered one of the most productive; Grassland, representative of the high mountain areas and with an average rainfall of 781.5mm. These uses are analysed in the Andarax and Guadalfeo regions, representative of arid and alpine conditions, respectively.

The analysis of the HICs is proposed for the previously defined case studies, in a first period between 1961-2016; and a future period based on IPCC projections covering the years 2025-2100.

Firstly, the indices defined in the period 1961-2016 have been evaluated. The aridity index (AIp) shows the ratio obtained between precipitation and mean annual temperature in the area, with low values corresponding to drier areas and high values to wetter areas. The results show on an annual scale and for all land uses an increase in aridity (decreasing trend of the IAp with a statistical significance of 99.9%), being more accentuated in the case of pastures with a trend of -2.47mm/ºC. A regional comparison shows lower values for Andarax, which confirms its arid character.

Another HHI analysed is the snow index (In), defined as the annual snowfall in the case studies. In relation to trends, decreasing trends are obtained for In for conifers and shrubland in Guadalfeo. However, positive trends for both canopies in the Andarax region have been found. This increasing trend in the Andarax area may be due to the variability observed for both canopies in the period 2000-2015. For the case of pasture, decreasing trends were found with a significance of 95% in the Guadalfeo region and 90% for the pasture located in the Andarax region. In conclusion, grassland is the most vulnerable cover to changes in the snow index, with losses of 3.6 mm and 0.53 mm of snow per year observed for grassland located in the Guadalfeo and Andarax regions, respectively.

In addition, Landsat images have been used to obtain other HHI. The canopy cover fraction indicator (FCV) is defined as the plant area occupied by the canopy. The temporal evolution of the FCV index shows similar growth cycles in each of the species, with a clear maximum in spring and variable minimum values in winters or summers depending on the species and region. In the case of conifers, variations between regions are scarce, due to a similar altitude (1488 m.a.s.l. in Guadalfeo and 1607 m.a.s.l. for Andarax) and to a not very noticeable influence of the snow cover. On the contrary, these differences are more appreciable in scrub and pasture, with very different relative heights and a greater influence of the snow cover, especially in pasture in the Guadalfeo region. Thus, the seasonal behaviour shows a gap in both areas of approximately two months, being earlier in Andarax, a more arid region with less snow cover.

Within the scope of the project, the feasibility of the Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 missions has been analysed and demonstrated by obtaining eco-hydrological indicators for biodiversity management in the PNyNSN associated with the distribution of vegetation.

The HHIs have been obtained, based on the availability of data available for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, for the future period. The study period analysed, between the years 2025-2100, has been divided into three sub-periods that will be representative for three states of the future: near future, for the study period 2025-2050; medium future, covering the period 2051-2075; and finally 2076-2100, referred to as the far future.

The future evolution of temperatures is presented as an example. In a global analysis, it can be seen that scrubland is the use with the highest temperature, with an average of 12.45ºC and 13.56ºC for both regions analysed and in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. At the opposite extreme, grass is the species that consolidates as the coldest species, being also in the Guadalfeo region with an average temperature of 6.22ºC for the whole future period. As far as change is concerned, all the cases analysed show an increasing trend statistically significant at 99.9% confidence, ranging from a gain of 0.2ºC/year for the RCP4.5 scenario to 0.04ºC/year for the RCP8.5 scenario for the entire future period analysed. These changes are also observed when analysing the three future periods, in which an increase in temperatures is observed for the two regions analysed and the three selected canopies. However, it is the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario that reflects a more severe change that can vary up to 2.8°C increase for grassland.

CONCLUSIONS

• Of the three canopies analysed, grasses show the greatest variability between the humid and arid regions. On the contrary, conifers show a more homogeneous behaviour between the areas analysed. This may be due to a distribution of conifers at different altitudes in both areas, which cushions the effects of change. As shrubland is the most extensive cover, the great variability of species included in this class means that the results obtained do not lead to any significant conclusions.
• The significant increase in the trend in the IEHs related to temperature are key to understanding the phenological behaviour of the species studied, which can lead to seasonal variations in key aspects such as production, flowering and pest infestation.
• For the IEH analysed, an extreme behaviour is observed, with maximum and minimum values located in the last 15 years studied.
• The IEH with the highest rate of change for the future period is Precipitation in the form of snow, for all the case studies analysed. This is particularly relevant in the case of pasture, since its dynamics in the Guadalfeo region is closely linked to the snow regime.
• Of the variables and indicators analysed, precipitation is the one with the greatest influence on the vigour of the vegetation cover.
• The new remote sensors analysed, Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, allow the definition of IEH with greater spatial-temporal resolution than that obtained with traditional sensors, as well as new variables (i.e. soil moisture or discrimination between dry and wet snow) that are difficult to use at coarser scales in areas with abrupt topography such as in the case of the PNyNSN. However, the recent launching of these systems means that the length of the time series is not yet sufficient to quantify their impact.
• The HHIs defined constitute a management tool with which to make decisions by comparing limiting states for the canopies observed in the past and extrapolating this information to that obtained for future projections.
• In addition, these EHRs could be applied to management problems associated with smaller time scales (seasonal projections).

The team involved in the project is part of the Research groups at the Andalusian Institute for Earth System Research (IISTA), seat of University of Córdoba.

 

María José Polo Gómez – Responsible Researcher

María Cristina Aguilar Porro – Researcher

Carmen Galán Soldevilla – Researcher

José Luis Quéro Pérez – Researcher

María José Pérez Palazón – Researcher

Pedro Gómez Giráldez – Researcher

The dissemination of results is presented as the final step in the implementation of a project, so that dissemination actions have been carried out when the results have begun to be conclusive. Therefore, most of these activities have been carried out in the second half of the implementation period.

FAIRS AND DISSEMINATION DAYS

From the point of view of a more social dissemination, the DFH collaborates in the different activities and workshops proposed by the Scientific Culture Unit of the University of Cordoba (UCO). The aim of this type of activity is to reach a non-specialised public, taking science out of the doors of the university. In short, bringing knowledge closer to society.

• European Researchers’ Night 2018 «Feria de los Ingenios». The European Marie Sklodowska Curie programme carries out this activity in 350 different cities across Europe. The aim is to bring science closer to the general public and thus have a wider media coverage. On the evening of 28 September 2018, the DFH explained its various projects and the instruments used in its research to an audience of different ages.

• «Ingenios en Ruta» of the Noche Europea de los Investigadores 2018. The Scientific Culture Unit of the UCO designs this programme in which scientific researchers from the institution itself visit primary and secondary schools and institutes, specifically the «San Francisco de Sales Córdoba» and «Escolapias Santa Victoria.

• Science and Technology for Women The aim of the «Science and Technology for Women» programme is to promote scientific and technological vocations in order to increase the number of young women choosing to study science and technology in the future. The DFH group is made up of a large number of female scientists, so participation in this type of initiative is a priority. As part of this programme, the group participated in a workshop on 23 October.

WORKSHOP

Seminar-Workshop: «INTEGRATING HYDROLOGY IN MONITORING VEGETAL COMMUNITIES IN MEDITERRANEAN MOUNTAINS» held on 14 December 2018 within the «I WINTER WORKSHOP» organised by the Inter-University Institute for Earth System Research in Andalusia (IISTA).

CONFERENCE ATTENDANCE

• Polo, M.J.,Pérez-Palazón, M.J.,Herrero,J. 2018. Terrestrial imagery as ground-truth data sets for the validation of EarthObservation products: the snow monitoring system in Sierra Nevada(Spain). Remote Sensing and Hydrology Symposium (ICRS-IAHS)10/05/2018
• Muñoz-Navarro, J. A., Pérez-Palazón, M.J.,Gilabert, A.,Polo, M.J.2018.Landsat TM versus Sentinel 2 as data sources for snow and vegetationcovers in Mediterranean mountain regions: significant scales forhydrology applications in a monitoring site in Sierra Nevada (Spain). RemoteSensing and HydrologySymposium (ICRS-IAHS)10/05/2018
• Aguilar, C., Pimentel, R.,Zinnert, J.C., Pérez-Palazón, M.J., Wood,L. Polo, M.J.2018. Linking the hydrological regime and the vegetation cover evolution in amountainous region in southern Spain from Landsat TM data for longterm assessment.Remote Sensing and Hydrology Symposium (ICRS-IAHS) 10/05/2018
• Polo, M.J., Herrero,J., Pimentel, R., Pérez-Palazón, M.J., Gilabert, A. 2018. “Combining remote sensing and terrestrial photography in a snowmelt modeling framework to retrieve snow evolution in a semi- arid region”. International Geoscience and RemoteSensingSymposium, IGARSS.26/07/2018

SPECIALLY DEVELOPED INFORMATION MATERIAL

In order to simplify the explanations to the different interest groups, an informative leaflet has been produced in which the methodology used and the indicator variables of change defined in each of the control points analysed are explained in summary form. Figure 5 shows the triptych model, which has been explained and distributed in the different informative activities described above.

RRSS DISSEMINATION OF RESULTS.

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