Detection of early warning signals in paleoclimate data using a genetic time series segmentation algorithm

Áreas de investigación:

• Methodology - Machine learning

Año:

2015

Tipo de publicación:

Artículo

Autores:

• Nikolaou, Athanasia
• Gutiérrez, Pedro Antonio
• Durán-Rosal, Antonio Manuel
• Dicaire, Isabelle
• Fernandez-Navarro, Francisco
• Hervás-Martínez, César

Journal:

Climate Dynamics

Volumen:

44

Número:

7--8

Páginas:

1919-1933

Mes:

April

ISSN:

0930-7575

BibTex:

@article{Nikolaou2015, author = "Athanasia Nikolaou and Pedro Antonio Guti{\'e}rrez and Antonio Manuel Dur{\'a}n-Rosal and Isabelle Dicaire and Francisco Fernandez-Navarro and C{\'e}sar Herv{\'a}s-Mart{\'i}nez", abstract = "This paper proposes a time series segmentation algorithm combining a clustering technique and a genetic algorithm to automatically find segments sharing common statistical characteristics in paleoclimate time series. The segments are transformed into a six-dimensional space composed of six statistical measures, most of which have been previously considered in the detection of warning signals of critical transitions. Experimental results show that the proposed approach applied to paleoclimate data could effectively analyse Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events and uncover commonalities and differences in their statistical and possibly their dynamical characterisation. In particular, warning signals were robustly detected in the GISP2 and NGRIP delta18O ice core data for several DO events (e.g. DO 1, 4, 8 and 12) in the form of an order of magnitude increase in variance, autocorrelation and mean square distance from a linear approximation (i.e. the mean square error). The increase in mean square error, suggesting nonlinear behaviour, has been found to correspond with an increase in variance prior to several DO events for - 90 % of the algorithm runs for the GISP2 delta18O dataset and for aprox 100 % of the algorithm runs for the NGRIP delta18O dataset. The proposed approach applied to well-known dynamical systems and paleoclimate datasets provides a novel visualisation tool in the field of climate time series analysis.", awards = "JCR (2015): 4.708 Position: 8/84 (Q1) Category: METEOROLOGY {\&}amp; ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES", comments = "JCR (2015): 4.708 Position: 8/84 (Q1) Category: METEOROLOGY {\&}amp; ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES", issn = "0930-7575", journal = "Climate Dynamics", month = "April", note = "JCR (2015): 4.708 Position: 8/84 (Q1) Category: METEOROLOGY {\&}amp; ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES", number = "7--8", pages = "1919--1933", title = "{D}etection of early warning signals in paleoclimate data using a genetic time series segmentation algorithm", url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2405-0", volume = "44", year = "2015", }

Nota:

JCR (2015): 4.708 Position: 8/84 (Q1) Category: METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Abstract:

This paper proposes a time series segmentation algorithm combining a clustering technique and a genetic algorithm to automatically find segments sharing common statistical characteristics in paleoclimate time series. The segments are transformed into a six-dimensional space composed of six statistical measures, most of which have been previously considered in the detection of warning signals of critical transitions. Experimental results show that the proposed approach applied to paleoclimate data could effectively analyse Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events and uncover commonalities and differences in their statistical and possibly their dynamical characterisation. In particular, warning signals were robustly detected in the GISP2 and NGRIP delta18O ice core data for several DO events (e.g. DO 1, 4, 8 and 12) in the form of an order of magnitude increase in variance, autocorrelation and mean square distance from a linear approximation (i.e. the mean square error). The increase in mean square error, suggesting nonlinear behaviour, has been found to correspond with an increase in variance prior to several DO events for - 90 % of the algorithm runs for the GISP2 delta18O dataset and for aprox 100 % of the algorithm runs for the NGRIP delta18O dataset. The proposed approach applied to well-known dynamical systems and paleoclimate datasets provides a novel visualisation tool in the field of climate time series analysis.

Comentarios:

JCR (2015): 4.708 Position: 8/84 (Q1) Category: METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES