UCOFEDER

The operation of hydropower systems relies on the hydraulic conditions of the water system and their management is carried out based on certain operation rules (e.g. turbine minimum and maximum discharge) and environmental flows requirements. The effects of global change in hydropower systems are varied as expected changes in the meteorological forcing agents determine considerable modifications in the water flows that affect the amount of available water and thus, the production of hydroelectric power.

This study is applied in the Andalusian hydropower system in certain selected watershed units and storage systems representative of the Andalusian hydrographic units. The typical variability of the climatic and fluvial regimen in these areas requires to explore different approximations to advance in the quality of forecasts at operational scales, and in the development of tools for water resources planning and decision making based on local criteria to guarantee demands that have proved to fail in the actual context of an increase in the variability of the hydrological regime at every temporal scale. Thus, this project addresses the forecast of water inflows and their associated uncertainty conditioned to antecedent meteorological and hydrological conditions available in the study sites with operational purposes in the generation of hydropower based on the scientific knowledge of rainfall-runoff processes and an accurate analysis of the stochastic relations among the main explanatory variables. The structure of the forecast scheme to be developed seeks to efficiently reproduce the states that condition the operation of this type of hydropower systems (Maximum and minimum operating flows, minimum environmental flow, etc.)

Once the forecast structure is developed, a compilation in a simple tool will be carried out and transferred to water managers to serve as technical support of the decision-making process in order to minimize the impact of the variability of the flow regime in the management of the hydropower system at the medium and long term. The development of these tools as decision support systems in the decision-making process is essential and allows the incorporation of advanced plans to adapt to global warming. Plus, it contributes directly to Social Challenge 5 of the H2020-UE Program: “Action for climate, environment, efficiency of resources and raw materials”.

The general objective of this project is to generate a stochastic forecast structure of the seasonal and annual flow from their relationship with significant forcing agents to infer the regime of inflows to hydroelectric power plants with operational purposes. This methodology must i) Identify significant relationships between forcing agents and target variables, ii) Establish a system for forecasting the volume of water supplied to the system at the seasonal and annual scale, and iii) Develop a tool to support decision-making in the operation of hydroelectric plants

Aguilar, C., Pimentel, R., Vela, S., Contreras, E., Moreno, F., Polo, M.J. 2022. Flash flood early-warning system in a Mediterranean reservoir at operational scales for hydropower production. EGU22-12889

Cristina Aguilar Porro (UCO) – Responsible Researcher

María José Polo Gómez (UCO) –Researcher

María Fátima Moreno Pérez (UCO) –Researcher

Eva Contreras Arribas (UCO) –Collaborator

Manuel del Jesus Peñil (IH-Cantabria) –Collaborator

Raquel Gómez Beas (UCO) – Researcher